Was DiMaggio's the least likely of all the 30+ game long streaks?

The answer is yes, but only because hitting in 56 consecutive games is so much less likely than hitting in 30, or even 44. As you can see on the previous page, DiMaggio was about 300 times more likely to hit in 30 consecutive games or more  games than to hit in 56. Therefore, although DiMaggio had a much better season than Kenny Landreaux, DiMaggio's 56 game streak was still less likely than Landreaux's 31.

While no streak was as unlikely as the famous 56, some others came close, including Rose's second-best 44. The complete results are shown below for all the 30+ game streaks in the 20th and 21st centuries.

 

Chances per million   Player, Streak length
133   DiMaggio 56
239   Rose 44
590   Landreaux 31
874   Santiago 34 
1,108   Chase 33
3,092   Davis 30
3,307   Castillo 35
4,305   Molitor 39
4,436   DiMaggio (Dom) 34
4,665   Walton 30
4,727   Davis 31
4,939   Alomar 30
6,323   Guerrero 31
8,317   McQuinn 34
9,553   Goslin 30
12,907   LeFlore 30
13,859   Carty 31
18,235   Holmes 37
21,811   Musial 30
30,567   Gonzalez 30
32,646   Garciaparra 30
35,773   Pujols 30
37,574   Manush 33
40,322   Rice 31
40,472   Cobb 35
46,950   Sisler 34
49,681   Lajoie 31
79,948   Speaker 30
80,611   Brett 30
95,327   Sisler 41
95,740   Cobb 40
153,973   Hornsby 33

Notes:

  • Pete Rose hit in 44 consecutive games in a season in which he succeeded in only 27% of his plate appearances. Earlier in his career, however, Rose had been an excellent type of player to achieve hit streaks. The 44 streak would not have been such a surprise in 1973, when Rose succeeded in 31% of his plate appearances, and came to the plate 4.66 times per game. This was actually better than DiMaggio's 1941 stats, (31%, 4.44). Rose's 1973 season was two and a half times more likely to produce a long streak than DiMaggio's 1941, but in 1978, the season when Rose actually pulled off the 44 game streak, it was a fluke.
  • Landreaux? Go figure! Ken Landreaux succeeded in only 26% of his plate appearances, and had only 4.05 plate appearances per game. He had a .281 batting average and barely exceeded one hit per game (136 hits in 129 games). That was, by far, the worst "hit streak season" among all of the seasons which included a 30 game hit streak. Landreaux had zero chances per million to hit in 56, but for all that he was still more likely to hit in 31 straight than DiMaggio was to hit in 56 straight. 
  • The best "hit streak season" on the list was George Sisler's 1922. The odds against him achieving a 30 game streak that year were only about 3-2. The odds against his actual 41 game streak were about 9-1. The odds against him hitting in 56 straight were "only" about 75-1. Ty Cobb's 1911 season was not far behind. Sisler had 246 hits in 142 games in 1922, and Cobb had 248 hits in 146 games in 1911.
  • Just for the record, and to show how great DiMaggio was in the 1936-41 period, DiMaggio had three other seasons in which he was more likely to produce a long streak than he was in 1941.
  • The most completely predictable streak on the list was Hornsby's 33 in 1922. The odds against it were only about 6-1. Hornsby had a great year that year, with 250 hits in 154 games, but there were three seasons worth mentioning that were more likely to produce 30 game hitting streaks, but did not.
    • Lefty O'Doul, 1929: 254 hits in 154 games. He was 40 times more likely than DiMaggio to hit in 56 straight.
    • Bill Terry, 1930: 254 hits in 154 games.
    • Al Simmons 1925: 253 hits in 153 games.
    • (Honorable mention: Chuck Klein, 1930: 250 hits in 156 games. Ichiro Suzuki, 2001: 242 hits in 157 games. More on Ichiro in a minute.)

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